Carbon Minefields: Oil and gas exploration is set to surge, despite COP 28 pact

October 24, 2024 — Governments agreed at last year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28) to transition away from fossil fuels. Yet as the next round of United Nations climate talks approaches, some countries are preparing for an oil and gas exploration spree.

Global data from research company Rystad, analyzed by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, forecasts a strong uptick in exploration licensing. If fully exploited, oil and gas reserves set to be licensed for exploration in the next 6 months would emit 15 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. That is nearly as much as the United States’ and China’s combined emissions in 2022.

The 10 countries with the biggest licensing plans, in terms of embodied emissions, are China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Indonesia, the United States, Iran, Angola, Australia, Nigeria, and India.

There is no room for new oil and gas fields under a 1.5°C global warming limit, according to peer-reviewed research.

“These forecasts are worrying. Oil and gas expansion is the opposite of a transition away from fossil fuels," says Eduardo Posada, a policy analyst at IISD. “Not all forecast exploration licences materialize, so there is still an opportunity to prevent this expansion boom. Governments can defer or cancel licensing rounds and companies can choose not to invest in exploration.”

IISD's Carbon Minefields newsletter tracks the climate impact of global oil and gas licences awarded on a monthly basis.

In the past 12 months, the global oil and gas exploration licences awarded could lead to an estimated 2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the projects.

The 10 biggest licence issuers, by embodied emissions, include Norway, the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia. These are rich countries that are not highly dependent on oil and gas revenues and have the means to diversify their economies. One of them is taking steps in that direction.

In July, a new UK government won the election, promising to stop issuing licences for new oil and gas fields. It has also announced a “skills passport” to help oil and gas workers transfer their skills to other sectors. A new state-owned clean energy company, Great British Energy, will be based in Aberdeen, a gateway city for North Sea oil fields.

Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy advisor at IISD, says: “Reinventing communities built on oil and gas jobs is not easy, but it’s necessary to meet our climate goals. The onus is on rich countries to show how it can be done, by investing in clean energy, green jobs, and social safety nets.”

Last year’s climate talks host, the United Arab Emirates, and next year’s, Brazil, are also among the top 10 expanders in the past 12 months.

Notes for Editors

1. October Edition | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor 
2. No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The logical first step in a transition to clean energy 
3. How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans 
4. COP28 Agreement Signals “Beginning of the End” of the Fossil Fuel Era (UN Climate Change press release)

Media Contact

Megan Darby, Senior Communications Officer, IISD: mdarby@iisd.org