Canada’s Emissions Trends 2014 Report: Updates, outcomes and reflections

The Government of Canada has released its 2014 Canada’s Emissions Trends report. The report provides information on Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the global context, the country’s historical GHG emissions and projections of its emissions out to 2020, the goal year by which Canada has pledged through the Copenhagen Accord to lower its emissions by 17 per cent relative to 2005 levels.

Overall, the 2014 Canada’s Emissions Trends report finds that, due to policies enacted since 2005, emissions are projected to be 130 million tonnes (Mt) lower in 2020 than they would have been otherwise. Nevertheless, a gap of 116 Mt is expected to remain between projected 2020 levels and Canada’s Copenhagen pledge of 611 Mt, a gap of nearly 16 per cent of Canada’s 2005 emissions. General economic and population growth and growth in the oil sands are the major drivers of projected emissions growth, while federal policies in the transportation sector and provincial policies in the electricity sector are the main drivers of mitigation.

This briefing note summarizes the most important findings of the report, and details the updates and changes made since the 2013 report. It concludes with a brief commentary on the report and the present trajectory of Canada’s emissions trends.