In Search of Prosperity: The role of oil in the future of Alberta and Canada
This report assesses the market outlook for Alberta’s oil sector, using new modelling and a comprehensive analysis of eight key factors affecting the sector’s future.
-
What does the future look like for #Alberta’s oil sector? Is a thriving oil sector even possible, given market realities? #abpoli
-
Alberta’s oil sector has been an economic workhorse for decades; as of 2019, it was contributing CAD 68 billion to the province's economy. But its long-term outlook is bleak. #abpoli
-
By 2030, market forces & geopolitics will drive a long-term decline in the AB oil sector—potentially causing 20,000 job losses annually. Public support to the sector is a poor investment. #abpoli
The long-term market outlook for Alberta's oil sector is bleak. By the end of this decade, a combination of market forces, international climate policies and geopolitics will push the sector beyond a tipping point and drive its long-term decline.
This is new. The oil sector has never experienced an outlook like this, in which demand and prices fall without prospect of recovery—and its decline, beginning by the end of this decade, will put Alberta’s economy to the test.
Modelling for low oil prices shows material drops in provincial GDP, royalties, and employment from the oil sector. However, price volatility poses a much greater threat than low prices to the Alberta economy. When we apply the kind of price volatility that we’ve seen over the last 37 years to the next 30 years, the damage to Alberta’s economy can be more than five times worse in our modelling.
This is a dynamic that standard economic projections ignore.
A prosperous Alberta will need to depend less and less on the oil sector, at least in so far as production of oil for combustion. Governments should target support and investments at diversification, new growth opportunities, and a just transition for workers and communities.
Read the report, then join our event: Oil and The Future of Alberta's Economy.
Participating experts
You might also be interested in
Why Liquefied Natural Gas Expansion in Canada Is Not Worth the Risk
An analysis of the economic and environmental risks of liquified natural gas expansion in Canada.
New Report Highlights Economic and Environmental Costs of Canada’s LNG Expansion
New report explains how LNG expansion will not only hamper Canada’s progress toward its climate goals but also create challenges for the economy in the long term.
Unlocking Supply Chains for Localizing Electric Vehicle Battery Production in India
This study aims to highlight the key supply chain barriers in localizing electric vehicle (EV) battery cell manufacturing in India. It summarizes consultations with 12 companies, as well as experts and policy-makers, to determine the crucial challenges and opportunities in localizing battery manufacturing in India.
IGF Case Study: Decarbonization of the Mining Sector
Case studies from Chile, Indonesia, and South Africa that delve into the role of the mining sector in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.