What’s at Stake for Transition Away From Fossil Fuels at COP 30

At COP 28 in Dubai, governments took a historic step toward adding more substance to the goals of the Paris Agreement by committing to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner.

Two years later, that promise hangs in the balance. Despite the headline commitment, governments continue to pursue policies that pull in opposite directions. Current production plans would see countries extracting over 120% more fossil fuels by 2030 than is consistent with limiting global warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. No progress was made on the “transitioning away” agenda at COP 29, but in July 2025, the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice confirmed that fossil fuel expansion, including by subsidizing fossil fuels, can be in breach of international law.

As clean energy development reshapes markets, corroding fossil fuel demand, fossil fuel-producing countries that fail to diversify their economies are increasingly exposed to both legal risks and market shocks.

COP 30 in Belém presents a chance for governments to secure alignment and  drive the transition away from fossil fuels. They can do so in three ways:

• by adopting follow-up commitments on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and public finance for fossil fuels,
• by adopting a robust and credible response to the ambition gap in NDCs, and
• by strengthening the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) to make the shift away from fossil fuels fair, inclusive, and equitable.

Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Public Finance for Fossil Fuels

At COPs 26, 27, and 28, governments committed to phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or support just transitions. Implementation, however, is still lagging.

At COP 30, negotiations under Article 2.1(c)—the provision of the Paris Agreement that calls for aligning financial flows with climate goals—could bring a breakthrough. Countries could be asked to submit inventories of their fossil fuel subsidies and develop action plans for gradually phasing them out while protecting vulnerable communities. These plans should set clear timelines for phasing out remaining subsidies, explain when temporary and targeted support measures may still be needed to address energy poverty or support just transitions, and propose alternative policy tools to ensure energy access and social protection.

Countries should also be called upon to end all forms of public finance for fossil fuels, both domestic and international, with wealthier nations taking the lead.

 

It will be vital that Article 2.1(c) discussions continue beyond the Sharm el-Sheikh Dialogue, which expires this year, so that remaining issues can be resolved through continued collaboration. With many elements of Article 2.1(c) still contested, further talks are necessary to improve common understandings.

The Baku to Belém Roadmap—a roadmap to mobilize at least USD 1.3 trillion in climate finance per year by 2035 (expected on November 5)—should highlight fossil fuel subsidy phase-out as a powerful tool to unlock fiscal space for scaling up climate finance. Annex II countries to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—those responsible for providing climate finance to developing countries—accounted for USD 378 billion in fossil fuel subsidies in 2023 alone. COP 30 is the moment to endorse the roadmap and commit to redirecting this support toward climate finance.

Nationally Determined Contributions

The Paris Agreement’s 5-year ambition cycle is at a defining phase: submission of the third generation of NDCs. The Paris Agreement encourages parties to progressively strengthen their NDCs, and including commitments to transition away from fossil fuels is a way for countries to deliver such a strengthened approach. While NDCs were due in February 2025, most parties have not yet delivered theirs.

The October 2025 NDC synthesis report was stark. Collectively, new NDCs would cut emissions by only 17% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, when a 60% reduction is required for a pathway aligned with a 1.5 °C target. Moreover, only 22% of submitted NDCs contain domestic targets or policies for advancing the energy transition—such as increasing renewable energy capacity and energy efficiency, accelerating the phase-down of unabated coal power, and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

Unless COP 30 delivers a robust response to this ambition gap, the Paris Agreement’s credibility will be at risk.

 

After a similar shortfall in NDC ambition before COP 26 in Glasgow, parties responded with several measures, including launching a Mitigation Work Programme and encouraging updated NDCs within a year. While the efficacy of those measures can be questioned, inaction at COP 30 in the face of such a clear failure to live up to the 1.5°C goal would send an alarming signal.

Countries that have not yet submitted their NDCs—accounting for around 70% of emissions—urgently need to do so before COP 30, and those NDCs must meaningfully address the “transition away from fossil fuels” of the global stocktake. They should include quantified targets to reduce fossil fuel production, commitments to end fossil fuel exploration licences, and commitments to phase out their fossil fuel subsidies.

So far, 15 NDCs by fossil fuel-producing countries have integrated measures to manage fossil fuel production into their NDCs, but most of them relate to decreasing emissions from production rather than transitioning away from production itself. Only four countries have included specific policies or measures to transition away from fossil fuel production in their NDCs. Finally, just 10 countries include forward-looking or actionable commitments to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies in their NDCs, including several references to recently initiated reforms.

Just Transition

The energy transition will succeed only if it is fair and inclusive. Without addressing its social, economic, and distributional dimensions, the shift away from fossil fuels risks deepening inequality and excluding the most vulnerable from access to energy, employment, and business opportunities. The JTWP—established at COP 27 and operationalized at COP 28—was designed to make climate action people-centred, promoting social dialogue and the engagement of relevant stakeholders, decent work, social protection, and opportunities for all while advancing the Paris Agreement goals. Since its launch, the JTWP has served as a valuable forum for exchanging experiences and has strengthened the shared understanding of how to implement just transitions in practice.

Yet dialogue alone is no longer enough. To meet the scale of the challenges emerging with accelerating energy transition, the JTWP must evolve into a mechanism that can coordinate the growing number of just transition initiatives worldwide and directly supports countries—particularly those in the Global South—in developing and implementing coherent, well-resourced just transition strategies.

Last year's COP 29 in Baku ended without agreement on next steps, leaving this crucial agenda at a crossroads.

 

But June 2025 negotiations in Bonn showed encouraging progress, with parties converging around a more comprehensive vision of just transition—one rooted in human rights, gender equality, nature, and universal access to clean energy and clean cooking. An informal note captured these areas of progress but left key questions open about how the JTWP should be structured going forward—whether to build on existing mechanisms or establish new ones, such as a toolbox, global platform, technical assistance network, or guidance framework.

Building on this progress, COP 30 in Belém will be the moment for countries to act decisively and give the JTWP a clear mandate and practical direction, enabling it to help countries develop national just transition strategies, integrate them into NDCs, national adaptation plans, and long-term plans, and access the financial and technical support needed for implementation.

Gender and Inclusion

The COP 30 Action Agenda places inclusion at the centre of the conference’s political focus, linking gender equality, decent work, and social justice with climate and energy policy. As countries accelerate the clean energy transition, many are recognizing that energy policies often overlook the needs of women, youth, and marginalized communities. Gender-responsive approaches in the JTWP, the COP 30 cover text, NDCs, and national policies can better reflect these realities and ensure that the benefits of the transition are shared equitably.

Evidence from upcoming International Institute for Sustainable Development research in India and Kenya illustrates this potential: when solar irrigation pumps were designed with gender and inclusion in mind, social benefits multiplied. In several villages, surplus solar power was used to operate grain mills, creating new income streams and shifting traditional gender roles as women took on management responsibilities.

By anchoring gender-responsive approaches in national energy and climate strategies, governments can turn these principles into practice—advancing the goals of the Action Agenda and building cleaner, fairer, and more resilient societies for all.

COP 30 is a moment to move beyond declarations and deliver concrete progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels. Through clear commitments to phase out subsidies and public finance for fossil fuels, raise NDC ambition, and advance a just and inclusive transition, governments can prove that the Paris Agreement is driving real transformation powered by political will.